Start the day smarter Notable deaths in 2023 The world's largest war . California tested a larger share of its population at the peak of its omicron surge than Florida did, and Florida's positivity rate was higher, which suggests that Florida missed a larger share of infections than California. The index comes from Oxfords Blavatnik School of Government, where researchers track the policies or lack thereof governments use to contain the virus and protect residents, such as contact tracing, mask mandates and restrictions on businesses and gatherings. But since people were allowed to remove their masks while eating and drinking, requiring them to cover their faces upon entry was more a symbolic gesture than a serious safeguard. But it seems clear that anyone who takes it for granted that mask mandates have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19 is making a series of assumptions that are not justified by the evidence. More state leaders acted to strike down mask mandates on Thursday, citing a decline in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. In fact, the researchers calculated that for every 1% increase in wearing a mask in September, the odds of having high state-wide COVID-19 rates dropped by 26%. Some states now have ended their statewide masks mandates, but the president, and others, have urged them to reinstate masks mandates because of the recent upsurge that our nation has seen in COVID-19 cases. Theyre suffering from mask dependency, as this psychological affliction is termed in Japan, where a long tradition of mask-wearing during flu season has left some individuals afraid at any time to expose their faces in public. For demographic data, we dichotomized population proportions at whole values that approximated the highest quartile of the distributions. The index does not evaluate the effectiveness of individual policies. Variants of COVID-19 Are Spreading Across the U.S. How to Plan a COVID-Safe Summer Vacation in 2022. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic. After reopening early, some Sun Belt states, including Arizona and Texas, imposed restrictions again after case counts climbed. Of the 8 states with at least 75% mask adherence, none reported a high COVID-19 rate. Experts interviewed by USA TODAY said the One America News Network had "misinterpreted" or "mischaracterized" the findings of the CDC study. Policy data on physical distancing were dichotomized as any versus no stay-at-home order during the April 1 to October 31, 2020 interval. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus. Because there are so many variables to account for, it is very difficult to isolate the impact of any given policy. Thus, policy and adherence levels in a given month were contrasted with lagged COVID-19 case rates in the subsequent month. Again and again, journalists and public-health officials would single out a state or a nation that had supposedly tamed Covid by forcing citizens to wear masksand then these masks would promptly fail to prevent an unprecedented wave of infections. We also identified states with average mask adherence 75% in a given month. Parents have pushed for the mask mandate to be lifted for a number of reasons. It is worth noting that no states achieved this level of mask adherence in September, which might account in part for the spike in COVID-19 rates in October. On the other hand, Hawaii and Connecticut had two of the longest mask mandates and also some of the lowest per capita case counts of all the states. We recommend renewed efforts be employed to improve adherence to mask wearing. But as Flam notes, "the benefits of universal masking have been difficult to quantify" in the real world, where cloth models predominate and masks may not be clean, well-fitted, or worn properly. When Youve Been Fully Vaccinated. Visualization, 2.18.2022 4:30 PM. As of yesterday,The New York Times reports, every state that required people to wear face masks in public places and/or in schools during this winter's COVID-19 surge has decided to lift those mandates, with the exception of Hawaii. "The states with mask mandates haven't fared significantly better than the 35 states that didn't impose them during the omicron wave. Even as more and more states encourage or even mandate mask wearing, many citizens sti Our study accounted for temporality by staggering COVID-19 outcome data after adherence measures. High school students in Seattle staged a protest demanding that a mask mandate be reinstated, and psychologists now deal with the anxieties of children who dont want their classmates to see their faces. Individuals mask wearing behaviors are not only influenced by recommendations and mandates issued by state leaders, but also by print, televised, and social media [9]. For every 1% increase in average adherence in June, the fully adjusted odds ratios for high COVID-19 in July was 0.95, indicating a protective effect against high COVID-19 rates. Doug Burgum reopened the state nearly fully in May. Note: Measurements of government response come from the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Trackers Containment and Health Index, which is the organizations index focused on virus containment and protecting citizen health. Here's what it could mean for all of us. It compares Germany with Sweden, the medias Covid villain for refusing to lock down or mandate masks. Mask mandates are associated with reductions in COVID-19 case and hospitalization growth rates (6,7), whereas reopening on-premises dining at restaurants, a known risk factor associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (2), is associated with increased COVID-19 cases and deaths, particularly in the absence of mask mandates (8). Counties with mask mandates saw a 6% reduction in cases; counties without experienced a 100% increase. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order May 3, 2021. that barred local governments and school systems from imposing COVID-19 restrictions, including mask rules. The graph for New York, which also had a statewide mask mandate, looks very much like the graph for California, but with an earlier peak. No, Is the Subject Area "Public and occupational health" applicable to this article? The global pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 has overwhelmed health care systems, marked by peak numbers of hospital and intensive care unit admissions and deaths [1,2]. New Zealands prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, called it a validation of the countrys go hard, go early strategy, in which the country reacts rapidly to signs of community spread. Many have also done the least to contain the virus. here. Currently, patients, visitors and staff members at UCHealth are required to wear a mask at all times. No, Is the Subject Area "Health care policy" applicable to this article? Investigation, Models were unadjusted, adjusted for no mask policy (Model 1), and adjusted for no mask policy in previous month, no stay-home order, >15% population non-Hispanic Black, >15% population Hispanic, median age >40 years, population density > 200/square mile (Model 2). The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. Wearing a mask may still give some people a sense of security, but they could breathe more easily if theyd face the facts. For each month, the distributions of mask adherence across all 50 states and D.C. were categorized into quartiles, meaning the cut-off values for each quartile may be different from one month to another. In fact, it doesn't study mask efficacy at all. We show that mask mandates are associated with a statistically significant decrease in new cases (-3.55 per 100K), deaths (-0.13 per 100K), and the proportion of hospital admissions (-2.38 percentage points) up to 40 days after the introduction of mask mandates both at the state and county level. Nor did it look at actual mask wearing, as opposed to legal requirements. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement. Odds ratios indicating protection against high COVID-19 rates remained for all months and policy subgroups, ranging from 0.82 to 0.93 for states with any policy and from 0.60 to 0.95 for states with no policy. For mask adherence, the cut-off values for the low and high quartiles were 31% and 46% in June, 53% and 72% in July, 55% and 71% in August, and 55% and 68% in September. The list of states with high COVID-19 rates by month shows the initial wave in northeastern states in May, followed by a wave in southern states, and then spreading across the U.S. over the next four months (Table 2). They looked at data from April to October 2020. How Are States Responding to CDC Mask Guidelines? CNBC called the nations early Covid response a master class in science communication, and last fall it was praised for tightening its mask mandate in an Atlantic article, Four Measures That Are Helping Germany Beat Covid. Its stricter mandate early last year banished cloth masks, requiring surgical masks instead, and the states of Berlin and Bavaria went still further, requiring masks of N95 quality. Meantime, the medias favorite experts kept predicting doom for states that never mandated masks, like Florida, or that ended the mandates early in 2021, like Iowa, whose policy shift was denounced as reckless and delusional in a Washington Post article headlined, Welcome to Iowa, a state that doesnt care if you live or die. Iowas Covid death toll plummeted right after the article appeared. Rhode Island, where I live, has had a mask mandate since mid-December; nonetheless, we saw our January surge rise far higher than any other state. For now, relaxing some mask guidelines while staying vigilant is the government's compromise. Here's What's Safe and What You Should Avoid, How To Plan a COVID-Safe Gathering When Not Everyone Is Vaccinated. Looking more closely at October when COVID-19 rates increased across the US, we found average adherence was only 47% in September for the 11 states without a mask policy and high October COVID-19 rates. Charlie B. Fischer, Investigation, Mandating masks gave the illusion of doing something against the virus. But "few studies assessed compliance to mask wearing policies or controlled for the possible influence of other preventive measures such as hand hygiene and physical distancing.". Daniella Amato is a biomedical scientist and fact checker with expertise in pharmaceuticals and clinical research. States are issuing a new wave of mask mandates and social restrictions as record numbers of Covid-19 hospitalizations and soaring daily cases strain US medical systems. A quarterly magazine of urban affairs, published by the Manhattan Institute, edited by Brian C. Anderson. Vermont. The pandemic planners at the United Kingdoms Department of Health had reached a similar conclusion: In line with the scientific evidence, the Government will not stockpile facemasks for general use in the community. Anthony Fauci acknowledged this evidence early in the pandemic, both in his public comments (Theres no reason to be walking around with masks, he told 60 Minutes) and in his private emails (I do not recommend you wear a mask, he told a colleague, explaining that masks were too porous to block the small Covid virus). Indeed, associations between mask policy, adherence and other factors may be obscured in states with many high density and low density areas. If this hasnt persuaded you to take off your mask, you can find lots more reasons in a book by Ian Miller, the data analyst who created the graph for City Journal. Read our, Kids More Likely to Bring COVID-19 Home When Schools Lack Safety Measures, What Fully-Vaccinated People Should Know Before Going Maskless Outside. In the first 20 days after implementingmask mandates, new cases slowed by 0.5 percentage points. Texas locked down in the spring, when it had relatively few cases, then reopened quickly. PLOS ONE promises fair, rigorous peer review, But as Miller shows in his book, the policies made no discernible difference. Contributed equally to this work with: Former Arizona AG Found No Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud. | We utilized the COVID-19 US State Policy Database, created by Dr. Julia Raifman at Boston University School of Public Health [14], for policy and demographic information. Our analysis suggests high adherence to mask wearing could be a key factor in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Data Availability: Data are available in the paper and its Supporting Information file. Our analysis of state and D.C.-level data does not account for variations in policy, adherence, and demographic factors at smaller geographic levels, such as county-levels. Note: State containment measures are shown from two weeks prior, reflecting what experts say is a lag between new policies and results. When cases first peaked in the United States in the spring, there was no clear correlation between containment strategies and case counts, because most states enacted similar lockdown policies at the same time. May 16, 2021 / 7:07 AM / CBS News. Mask wearing has been advocated by public health officials as a way to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Decreases in the rate of new infections and deaths from the virus were statistically significant, the studys authors found. Given the situation during the omicron surge, there are additional reasons to doubt that mask mandates, even with perfect compliance, had much of an impact. Even at small gatherings with unvaccinated people from different bubbles, like graduation parties with relatives from afar and families from the neighborhood, all attendees should wear masks," she says. "Lifting of mask mandates across the board without consideration of the caveats does open the opportunity for another wave," Werler says. New infections have stayed among the lowest in the country, adjusted for population though cases now are rising in New York as they are everywhere. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t001. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Theyre not looking at masks in and of themselves," Josh Petrie, research professor in the University of Michigan's School of Public Health, told USA TODAY. The data we now have conclusively show that widespread use of masks is a very effective way to reduce the spread of COVID-19, CDC spokeswoman Jasmine Reed wrote in an email to USA TODAY. Yes Instead, it analyzed the connection between mask mandate policies and the rate of new county-level coronavirus cases and deaths. The wave of new restrictions in the United States follows national and regional lockdowns in Europe, where outbreaks surged past their spring peaks but cases per capita remained lower than many Upper Midwest states. here. The black line on the graph shows the weekly rate of Covid cases in all the states with mask mandates that week, while the orange line shows the rate in all the states without mandates. Nedghie Adrien, Roles Containment measures are as of Nov. 1. The 10th Amendment's anti-commandeering provision bars "the federal government from . Our research examines mask wearing policy and adherence in association with COVID-19 case rates. A new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found a link between face mask mandates and a reduction in COVID-19 cases and deaths, but at least one widely shared report wrongly interprets that data. "Nearly a year after California Gov. The opposite was true for states with mandates. We infer that mandates likely did not affect COVID-19 case growth, as growth rates were similar on all days between actual or modeled issuance dates and 6 March 2021. Even as more and more states encourage or even mandate mask wearing, many citizens still resist the notion. At its highest level of containment efforts, New York state scored an 80 on the index. An Annals of Epidemiology study published last May found that mask mandates in the United States were associated with lower transmission rates from June through September 2020. Over a third of states are ending COVID-19 mask mandates. I think timing really matters for the decisions.. Mask wearing has been advocated by public health officials as a way to reduce the spread of COVID-19. So did New Mexico, whose surge began shortly after Scientific American praised the states strict mask policies in an article headlined, How New Mexico Controlled the Spread of Covid-19.. Mean COVID-19 rates for states with 75% mask adherence in the preceding month was 109.26 per 100,000 compared to 249.99 per 100,000 for those with less adherence. However, Werler says her team did find substantial amounts of variation that could suggest other factors beyond mandatessuch as political affiliationcould be at play. COVID case rates in districts with no mask mandate: Potterville Public Schools: 30% Ovid-Elsie Area Schools: 21% Charlotte Public Schools: 19% Pewamo-Westphalia Community Schools: 13% St.. The States and Mask Mandates. Research suggests that mandatory mask-wearing policies correlated with a lower number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. Conceptualization, If Florida's case numbers understate the true number of infections more than California's do, that could partially explain the difference in COVID-19 deaths per capita. Jha thinks vaccination rates areanother important factor: While "only 59% of eligible Florida seniors have gotten boosted," he notes, the rate for California is 70 percent. We abstracted daily percentages of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t002. The graph tracks the results of a natural experiment that occurred nationwide during the pandemic. Jacob Sullum Fully vaccinated people should continue following CDC guidelines, including wearing their masks in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people. States with stronger policy responses over the long run are seeing comparatively smaller outbreaks. Prior to adopting mask mandates, those municipalities that eventually adopted mandates had higher transmission rates than the rest of the state, with the mean case rate difference per 100,000 people increasing by 0.32 cases per day (slope of difference = 0.32; 95% CI 0.13 to 0.51). For mask policy and adherence in September in relation to high COVID-19 rates in October, collinearity caused the odds ratio to flip. Latest news. Sources: Restrictions tightened as cases were rising. The pandemic has eased, but not the compulsion of many Americans to cover their faces. Even Greenpeace now admits the obvious: recycling doesnt work. Larry Hogan called on the State Board of Education to . The strongest real-world evidence in favor of general masking comes from a randomized trial in Bangladesh, which found that the use of surgical masks reduced symptomatic infections by 11 percent. To reduce the rate of COVID-19 cases nationwide, Werler says people need to wear their masks. Several other states have implemented or tightened. The black line on the graph shows the weekly rate of Covid cases in all the states with mask mandates that week, while the orange line shows the rate in all the states without mandates. 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